Tensions between Iran and Israel: Rising risks of conflict in the Middle East

We all are familiar with the terrible situation in Gaza. Since last October the situation has become severe from day to day. Israel’s military actions have ignored all rules and regulations that are important to keep peace. Israel’s attack on Gaza took the lives of many people. At that time approximately 34000 Palestinians have died and a huge number of people have been injured. Even though some countries, including the US, have asked Israel to be more careful, it hasn’t stopped. However, the recent decision by the UN Security Council to not vote against a ceasefire in Gaza could be a sign that there’s growing support for ending this conflict, which has been mostly one-sided.

In this already tense situation, the situation became worse due to the attack of Israel on the Iranian consulate in Syria on 1st April. This attack happened when many Muslims were fasting and busy in the preparation of Eid festival. Furthermore, in this attack along with many Muslims two Iranian generals, General Mohammad Reza and General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi were also killed. Five other Iranian military officers were also killed. A Hezbollah member named Hussein Youssef and two Syrians also died. Two Syrian police officers who were guarding the consulate got hurt too.

With all of these attacks Israel broke th eUN rules, like Article 51 and 2(4). They also did not give clear reasons for the attack. Experts warned that this could lead to a response from Iran, which might increase tensions in the region.

Iran launched an invasion on Israel on 13th April. It is the first time in history that these two nations have faced direct conflict. The Israeli military reported that over 300 drones and missiles were fired at Israel. They said almost all of them were intercepted by Israel’s defense systems, with help from the US, UK, France, and other countries, stopping them from hitting their targets. 

Thankfully, no one died, and the damage was minimal, according to Israeli reports. This is the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel after years of using proxy groups and indirect conflict.

Experts point out that before this, there was no clear evidence that Iran had directly supported non-state armed groups attacking Israel, and Iran had never openly attacked Israel itself. This raises questions about Israel’s earlier attack on Iran’s consulate, which not only broke international rules but also ignored Syria’s sovereignty. 

That attack happened on April 1st and was considered over and done with. Iran’s April 13th attack seems less about defense and more about retaliation or showing strength. It marks a change from a more defensive approach to a bolder, more aggressive one.

Events Leading to Escalation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with his war cabinet to discuss how to respond to the Iranian attack, while the head of Israel’s military promised to retaliate. After Iran’s assault, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on April 14th. During this meeting, the UN’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the region was “on the brink” of war and asked everyone to calm down. US President Joe Biden also spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu after the Iranian attack, stating that America would continue to support Israel’s security.

However, the US clearly refused to stand against Iran.Some senior White House Official informed Israel that they would not join in any military response against Iran. The current President of the state, Joe Biden, on April 15th, mentioned that the US was focused on a ceasefire to ensure hostages would be released and to avoid further conflict. 

This was related to the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. US officials told Israel to be cautious after Iran’s aggression. President Biden also made it clear to Netanyahu that the US would not give military help if Israel chose to retaliate against Iran, as reported by a White House official in local media.

Furthermore, the above scenarios have 3 possible outcomes. 

1. Escalation or De-escalation

Both nations Israel and Iran have been escalating tensions. As both are reacting to perceived threats from each other. Iran’s warning to Israel against provocations and Israel’s said to respond to the attack indicate the escalating conflict. 

The worldwide community, including allies, is urging both parties to show restraint to avoid a broader conflict.

2. Security Dilemma and Armament

The arms race and security dilemma in the Middle East have been ongoing for years. The recent increase in physical attacks and proxy warfare between Israel and Iran could lead to more countries in the region boosting their military capabilities, further intensifying the security dilemma.

3. Soft Power Enforcement

In response to the recent Iranian attack, Israel initiated a diplomatic effort to encourage other countries to impose sanctions on Iran. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced that he had contacted 32 countries to push for sanctions against Iran, indicating a shift toward diplomatic pressure as opposed to direct military retaliation. This soft power approach seeks to increase pressure on Iran, particularly on its already strained economy.