Trump’s Return: Shifting U.S. Policy and the Future of Middle East Diplomacy
The recent comeback victory of President-elect Donald Trump marks a pivotal moment in U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning the Middle East. His return to power presents a significant shift in diplomatic dynamics, with immediate and long-term implications for Israel’s ongoing military campaigns, its relations with Iran, and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Trump’s Diplomatic Bombshell
Trump’s win is akin to a diplomatic bombshell, undermining efforts for peace in the multifront wars involving Israel. As the Middle East teeters on the brink of further escalation, the likelihood of diplomatic breakthroughs, particularly in regard to ceasefires or conflict resolution, seems to have been severely compromised. Trump’s policies, set to diverge sharply from those of his predecessor, President Joe Biden, will likely freeze or even reverse existing ceasefire initiatives that have gained traction under the Biden administration.
Under Biden, the U.S. played a central role in attempting to negotiate ceasefire deals, particularly between Israel and Hamas, and more broadly in the wider Middle East. Biden’s approach focused on diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and international cooperation, particularly with key international bodies like the United Nations and the European Union. In contrast, Trump’s policies during his first term were marked by a unilateral approach, prioritizing military support and economic pressure over multilateral diplomacy.
Trump’s victory is celebrated by right-wing factions within Israel, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who viewed Trump as a staunch ally during his previous tenure in the White House. Netanyahu’s prompt congratulatory message highlights the ideological alignment between the two leaders, particularly regarding Israel’s territorial ambitions and its stance on Palestinian rights. Trump’s policies during his first term were a boon for Israel, with landmark decisions such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and supporting the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
However, Trump’s policies toward Israel are far from neutral. His strong support for Israel’s military campaigns against Iran and its proxies, along with his explicit backing of Israeli sovereignty over disputed territories, complicates any efforts at negotiating a lasting peace in the region. Trump’s indifference to Palestinian statehood and his opposition to the two-state solution has further entrenched divisions, leaving little room for compromise.
With his return, Israel can expect an even more unabashed alignment with U.S. policy, particularly in its confrontations with Iran. Trump is likely to continue advocating for aggressive policies that pressure Iran, including military strikes on its nuclear facilities, and support Israel’s continued military operations. This approach is in stark contrast to Biden’s emphasis on multilateral negotiations and diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East
Trump’s return to the White House also has profound implications for broader Middle Eastern geopolitics. His first term saw the facilitation of the Abraham Accords, a historic initiative that led to normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. However, this was largely driven by pragmatic concerns over shared regional security threats, particularly the Iranian influence in the region. With Trump back in office, it is likely that these agreements will continue to be promoted, but the broader context of these deals remains precarious.
While Trump’s policies have been hailed as a success in terms of regional security alignment, particularly in regard to countering Iran’s influence, they have failed to address the root causes of instability in the Middle East—namely, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the humanitarian crises that persist in Gaza and the West Bank. The absence of a meaningful resolution to these issues under Trump’s first term only exacerbated tensions, and his return promises little change in this regard.
A Flawed Peace Approach: The Price of Unilateralism
One of the central criticisms of Trump’s foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, was his tendency to operate unilaterally, undermining international institutions and ignoring the nuances of regional politics. His decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, to halt U.S. contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), and to pull the U.S. out of the United Nations Human Rights Council sent a clear message that he prioritized Israeli security above all else, often at the expense of broader diplomatic stability.
These actions have resulted in a diplomatic vacuum in the region, with the U.S. abandoning its role as a mediator and pushing regional players toward either full-blown conflict or dangerous alliances. Under Biden, there was at least an attempt to balance U.S. interests with international diplomacy, but Trump’s return could erase any hope of constructive multilateral negotiations.
Trump’s Middle East Legacy: A Risk of Escalation
Trump’s second term promises to exacerbate tensions in the region. His inclination to push Israel toward military objectives, while simultaneously undermining any international pressure on Israel to adopt a more diplomatic approach, threatens to escalate conflicts—particularly in Gaza and with Iran. His rhetoric, emphasizing strength over diplomacy, may lead to a more aggressive stance against Iranian-backed forces in Syria and Lebanon, and could spur further Israeli military actions in the West Bank and Gaza.
The potential for a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran also remains a looming risk, as Trump has been consistent in his support for Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. This, coupled with his disregard for international frameworks that aim to curb nuclear proliferation, only serves to fuel tensions and destabilize the region further.
The Biden Lame Duck Period: A Window of Uncertainty
With Biden now entering the final months of his presidency, the diplomatic playing field becomes increasingly unpredictable. Biden’s ability to broker ceasefires or reach any significant agreements will be undermined by the knowledge that his successor will almost certainly undo any progress made. The diplomatic leverage that the U.S. once held is now in limbo, as international actors weigh their options and attempt to navigate the uncertainty surrounding the transition.
In particular, the Israel-Hamas conflict, which is at the forefront of Middle Eastern tensions, may drag on through the remainder of Biden’s term. Netanyahu’s refusal to entertain ceasefire proposals, combined with Trump’s likely support for continued military action, means that diplomatic solutions will be far more difficult to achieve in the short term. Any potential breakthroughs will likely be delayed until Trump assumes office in January 2025, when his hardline stance on Israel and the broader Middle East will shape the future course of U.S. policy.
