Rethinking a Ceasefire: The Path to Lasting Peace Between Israel and Lebanon
The international community has often called for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, driven by a desire to prevent further violence and humanitarian disaster. However, such calls are ultimately short-sighted. Ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have historically been temporary, and, as experience shows, they tend to pave the way for renewed conflict in the future. Rather than pursuing short-term peace agreements, the international community should work towards a permanent peace treaty between Lebanon and Israel — a solution that addresses the root causes of the conflict and creates lasting stability.
The Current Conflict: Hezbollah’s Unilateral Action
Hezbollah’s Attack on Israel
The latest escalation between Israel and Hezbollah began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah launched an attack against Israel in solidarity with Hamas’s ongoing conflict with the Jewish state. This attack was initiated from Lebanese territory, displacing tens of thousands of Israelis living in northern Israel. Importantly, the Lebanese government did not authorize this offensive, nor was it debated in Lebanon’s democratic institutions. The decision to engage in hostilities against Israel was taken unilaterally by Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who acted under the direct influence of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
This unilateral decision highlights the central role Hezbollah plays in Lebanese politics and its capacity to override the will of the Lebanese government. As a powerful, non-state actor, Hezbollah operates largely outside Lebanon’s formal political processes, making its actions particularly destabilizing. The Lebanese people, who had no say in the decision, find themselves caught in the crossfire of a conflict driven by foreign interests and ideological allegiances.
Israel’s Military Response
In response to Hezbollah’s assault, Israel launched an extensive military campaign targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s Dahiyeh district. The Israeli goal is to degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities and reduce its control over Lebanon. Israel’s strategy has been successful so far, with key Hezbollah figures, including Nasrallah’s cousin and successor, Hashem Saffiedine, reportedly killed in the fighting. Nasrallah himself is rumored to be dead, and Hezbollah’s power structure appears increasingly fragile.
Israel’s efforts to neutralize Hezbollah’s military infrastructure are critical not only to securing its own borders but also to restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty. While the war continues, the hope is that Israel’s military action will provide Lebanon with an opportunity to reassert control over the country, free from the influence of Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.
Calls for Peace: A Difficult but Necessary Step
Growing Support for Normalization
Within Lebanon and its diaspora, there is a growing movement calling for normalization of relations with Israel. Some Lebanese parliamentarians, such as Nadim Gemayel from the Kataeb Party, have publicly supported a peace agreement with Israel. These voices acknowledge that Lebanon’s long-term security and stability will depend on resolving the conflict with Israel and ensuring that Hezbollah no longer holds the country hostage to its interests.
However, the path to peace is fraught with challenges. There are many in Lebanon who fear that peace with Israel will come at too great a cost, particularly in terms of political and social backlash from Hezbollah and its supporters. Additionally, Lebanon’s oligarchs, many of whom remain undecided, worry that international pressure on Israel to end the fighting prematurely would allow Hezbollah to regroup and restore its influence over Lebanon.
The Role of the International Community
The international community’s approach will be pivotal in shaping Lebanon’s future. The Lebanese people are acutely aware that an immediate ceasefire would only provide Hezbollah with the time it needs to recover, rearm, and retaliate against those who have advocated for peace. A premature end to hostilities would likely lead to Hezbollah reasserting its power and punishing those who sought a lasting peace with Israel, thus risking the outbreak of a new Lebanese civil war.
This is where international actors, including the United States, must step in. The world must make it clear to both Hezbollah and Lebanon’s political leadership that peace with Israel is the only viable path forward. The international community must also ensure that Israel’s military campaign continues until Hezbollah is sufficiently degraded and Lebanon’s sovereignty is restored.
The Obstacles to Peace: A History of Failed Ceasefires
The Failure of Past Peace Efforts
The history of Israel-Lebanon relations has been marked by failed ceasefires and temporary agreements. The 1949 armistice between Israel and Lebanon brought a brief period of calm but was not a comprehensive solution to the underlying issues. Subsequent wars, such as those involving the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Lebanese Civil War, were even more devastating.
In 2006, the United Nations brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah after the Lebanon War, but like previous ceasefires, it proved to be fragile. UN Security Council Resolutions 1559, 1680, and 1701, which sought to disarm Hezbollah and restore Lebanon’s sovereignty, failed to enforce any lasting change. Without the political will or military power to back these resolutions, they became ineffective in curbing Hezbollah’s growing influence in Lebanon.
The ongoing conflict in Lebanon, sparked by Hezbollah’s latest actions, is another indication that ceasefires alone cannot bring about lasting peace. While they may temporarily halt hostilities, they do not address the deeper issues of territorial sovereignty, political influence, and the role of external powers like Iran, all of which continue to fuel the conflict.
The Path to Lasting Peace: A Comprehensive Treaty
The Need for a Peace Treaty
A comprehensive peace treaty between Lebanon and Israel is the only solution that can bring about lasting stability in the region. This agreement must recognize the rights of both Israelis and Lebanese to live in peace and security. It should demarcate clear borders, establish diplomatic relations, and make another war between the two nations unlikely.
For Lebanon, this means breaking free from Hezbollah’s control and building a political system that reflects the will of the people rather than the interests of foreign-backed militias. For Israel, it means securing its northern borders and ensuring that Hezbollah no longer poses a military threat. For both countries, it means moving beyond decades of violence, building trust, and working together for mutual security.
Steps Toward Normalization
The international community must shift its focus from temporary ceasefires to long-term solutions. The necessary steps include military action to weaken Hezbollah, political reforms in Lebanon, and sustained international support to ensure that Hezbollah’s influence is diminished and that Lebanon’s sovereignty is restored. The world should support Lebanon in its efforts to disarm Hezbollah, while also guaranteeing Israel’s security concerns are addressed through a peace agreement.
The peace process will be difficult and fraught with obstacles, but it is the only path forward. By starting with the end goal — a lasting peace agreement — and working backward, the international community can identify the necessary steps to achieve that goal and ensure a stable future for both Lebanon and Israel.
Conclusion: A Path to Peace
A ceasefire may provide temporary relief, but it will not solve the underlying issues between Israel and Lebanon. Only a comprehensive peace treaty that addresses the root causes of the conflict — including territorial disputes, Hezbollah’s influence, and the role of external powers — will lead to lasting stability. The international community must support Lebanon in regaining its sovereignty, ensure Hezbollah is sufficiently weakened, and help both Israel and Lebanon move toward normalization. While the road to peace will be challenging, it is the only viable path for securing a peaceful and prosperous future for both nations.
