Geopolitical Implications of the U.S. Listing the Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Group

Political, diplomatic, and academic communities in China and Egypt are closely monitoring the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House and his administration’s stance on the Muslim Brotherhood. Both Chinese think tanks and Egyptian political circles are analyzing the possibility of Trump challenging the “deep state” in Washington, specifically in relation to the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) on the U.S. list of “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” (FTO). This move, which could potentially reshape U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, has far-reaching consequences for global politics, particularly with regard to Turkey, Qatar, and the broader Arab world.

China’s Strategic Interests and Concerns

China’s response to the Muslim Brotherhood has been notably cautious and pragmatic. The Chinese government has closely monitored the group’s international activities, especially given its controversial connections with other Islamist movements. China’s concern escalated in June 2022, when the MB organized a conference in Istanbul supporting the East Turkestan cause, which directly challenged China’s territorial integrity. The Muslim Brotherhood’s engagement in this political discourse prompted a swift and negative reaction from Beijing.

Moreover, China has long been wary of the MB’s ideological influence, especially in regions like Xinjiang, where Uighur Muslim separatism remains a sensitive issue for the Chinese state. Following the Arab Spring, when the MB came to power in Egypt, China declared a state of emergency, fearing that the group’s rise could inspire similar movements within its borders. This fear was exacerbated by the influx of MB members into Turkey, which became a refuge for many following their ousting in Egypt.

In light of these concerns, China supported the Egyptian revolution on June 30, 2013, which saw the overthrow of MB leader Mohamed Morsi. Beijing used its position in the UN Security Council to prevent the internationalization of the crisis, framing it as an internal Egyptian issue rather than one for the global community to mediate.

The Strategic Importance of U.S. Classification

The possibility of the U.S. labeling the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization is of significant interest to both Egypt and China, as it could change the diplomatic dynamics in the Middle East. From China’s perspective, this move would weaken the MB’s influence in the region and send a strong signal to other state actors, including Turkey and Qatar, who have provided political and financial support to the MB.

Turkey, despite its NATO membership, has been a longstanding ally of the MB, hosting members of the group who fled Egypt after its ouster in 2013. Similarly, Qatar has been accused of supporting the MB’s activities across the Arab world. If the U.S. proceeds with this designation, it could place substantial diplomatic pressure on both countries, challenging their support for the MB and forcing them to recalibrate their policies toward the organization.

For Egypt, the designation of the MB as a terrorist group would further legitimize its own efforts in combating MB-linked terrorism, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has been a staunch advocate for this move, having requested it during his meeting with Trump in 2019. In fact, this request reflects the ongoing strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S. in the fight against terrorism in the Middle East.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Global Reach

Beyond the Middle East, the MB’s international activities are a key concern for both China and the U.S. China has developed a unique analytical tool to monitor the MB’s influence globally. This “Muslim Brotherhood Influence Index” tracks the group’s impact in various regions, including the Middle East, North Africa, and among Muslim communities in China itself, such as the Uighurs. This index focuses on five key areas: political, economic, media, societal influence, and the group’s ability to mobilize public opinion via cyberspace and social media.

In the U.S., the MB’s presence within Muslim communities has sparked concern over the potential spread of extremist ideologies. If the U.S. formally classifies the MB as a terrorist organization, it would not only target the group’s international activities but also provide legal mechanisms to sanction individuals and organizations tied to it. This could help reduce the group’s influence in the U.S. and globally, while also addressing rising fears of Islamophobia by distinguishing between Islam as a religion and the political extremism of organizations like the MB.

Regional Reactions and Implications for Turkey and Qatar

The decision to classify the MB as a terrorist group is likely to put the U.S. at odds with Turkey and Qatar, both of whom have supported the MB for years. This dichotomy of Western allies engaging with terrorism-supporting states is increasingly untenable. Turkey, for instance, has lobbied for international recognition of groups like the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) and the Gülen Movement as terrorist organizations, but its support for the MB complicates its diplomatic relations with the U.S. and Europe.

Furthermore, countries like Germany, which have hosted MB affiliates, have also begun to take a more cautious approach. In 2023, Germany’s interior ministry considered placing the Turkish Islamic Union (DITIB), which has ties to the MB, under surveillance, due to concerns over the group’s political activities within German territory. This reflects growing European concern over the MB’s influence in the West, and especially Turkey’s role in supporting it.

The U.S. Decision and Its Global Consequences

The question of whether the U.S. will designate the MB as a terrorist organization remains a topic of intense debate within Washington’s foreign policy circles. However, the potential move is viewed as a critical step in addressing the spread of radical ideologies that the MB propagates globally. In addition to responding to Egypt’s longstanding request, such a designation could mark a shift in U.S. foreign policy, making it clear that the U.S. is no longer willing to tolerate double standards when dealing with state sponsors of terrorism.

If this step succeeds, it would not only strengthen Egypt’s position in the fight against terrorism but also send a clear message to regional actors like Turkey and Qatar that the U.S. will not support entities that undermine regional stability. Moreover, it would signal to global powers, including China, that the U.S. is taking serious measures to curtail the spread of extremist ideologies, which could ultimately impact the global fight against terrorism.

Conclusion

The prospect of the U.S. designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group is one with wide-ranging implications. For Egypt, it would legitimize its crackdown on the MB, while for China, it would offer an opportunity to further isolate the group and curb its influence in the region and beyond. The diplomatic fallout, however, would not be limited to the Middle East. If enacted, this designation could strain U.S. relations with Turkey, Qatar, and potentially other states in the region. As China continues to closely monitor these developments, its own diplomatic stance will likely evolve in response to the U.S. decision, emphasizing the need for global cooperation in countering extremism while maintaining regional stability.