
Exploring Syria War: How Assad’s power became weak
For many years, people believed that President Bashar al-Assad had successfully won the Syrian War. But there is no reality in it. This misinformation spread to mislead the people. Assad has strong support from Russia’s airpower and Iranian mercenaries that have become the cause of his survival. But now his allies are busy with other matters that make Assad’s positions weaker than before. It is shown by a recent attack from a Turkish-backed militia.
The Astana process greatly influenced the war, where different nations such as Russia, Turkey, and Iran made efforts to end the war. For this purpose they did not follow the United Nations’ plan of reform. Each nation had its own special objective. Russia had a desire to get military bases. At the same time, Iran sought more power in the region. Turkey aimed to prevent refugees and stop a Kurdish state.
Furthermore, in 2017, the three agreed to reduce fighting through de-escalation zones. Russia, Iran and President Assad broke the deal. They took control of most of the zones. This situation has left many people trapped in Idlib. It highlights that Assad’s rule is still unstable despite his allies’ support.
Now the situation in Syria has significantly shifted. Hayat Tahir Al Sham, who belonged to a terrorist group, is now a powerful group in the country. With the formation of the Syrian Salvation Government, it became more practical. By building alliances and working closely with Turkey, it makes it the most powerful.
At the same time, the Assad regime has turned into a major drug state. Many modifications happened due to two big events. First invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022. This conflict has weakened its role in Syria. The war changed the central focus of Russia. It was paying more attention to the war and had pulled back some of its forces in Syria.
After observing this Assad decided to lessen his reliance on Russia and Iran. He made efforts to improve partnership with the Arab League with the aim that he had won the civil war. In 2023, he was accepted back into the Arab League after being isolated for many years. However, his plan still faces risks in such an unstable region.
There has been a significant shift in the Syrian scenario in recent times. Iran initially appeared to be a significant ally of Assad’s regime, making any attempt to oppose its influence unlikely. However, the tide changed following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. Israel’s years-long targeting of Iranian arms supply to Syria and Lebanon escalated after the strike, when it killed five senior Iranian generals in Syria.
Israel refused to weaken Iran’s and Assad’s military capabilities in Syria in spite of working with Russia to avert war. Meanwhile, Assad’s core attacked Idlib, which did little to help Iran and made the refugee crisis worse. The Turkish-backed troops saw a chance to strike a weaker Assad since Russia was overwhelmed and Israel’s long-term operations were hurting both Assad and Iran. This action adore how the balance of power in the region has changed as a result of Israel’s affair and other features.
For almost ten years, Israel and Turkey have had similar goals in Syria, regardless of their disagreements over Gaza. While Israel looks to preserve its freedom of action against Iran and its merger in Syria, Turkey is centering on negotiating refugee migration from a strong position to weaken Syrian President Assad. Because both countries have long-standing disputes about these regional heavyweights, they make ideal allies in the fight against Russia and Iran.
This changing league is exemplified by the recent abrupt military campaign in Syria, where Turkish-backed forces grabbed Aleppo and moved into Hama in a few days. Aleppo took years for Assad’s forces, financed by Russia and Iran, to retake, but Turkey’s union has made great progress in a short time.